Bitcoin Supply Tightens as Long-Term Holders Outpace New Issuance

• More Bitcoin is moving into long-term storage than being newly mined: 550 BTC per day held for over 10 years vs. 450 BTC mined daily.
• 17% of all Bitcoin is currently illiquid. This could rise to 30% by 2026.
• Institutional demand is rising, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price much higher.

A new report from Fidelity Digital Assets reveals a major shift in Bitcoin’s supply pattern following the 2024 halving. Bitcoin held for over 10 years (often called "ancient" supply) is now growing faster than new coins are being mined. Each day, about 550 BTC joins this long-term category, while only 450 BTC is added to circulation through mining.

This pattern suggests that supply is tightening even as demand strengthens, especially from institutional investors. Experts are now questioning whether this trend could drive Bitcoin’s price as high as $1 million in the coming years.

Strong Holding Behavior Reduces Circulating Supply

Currently, more than 17% of all Bitcoin or about 3.4 million BTC, is locked in wallets that haven’t moved coins in over a decade. At current prices near $107,000, that’s around $360 billion worth of BTC. These holders rarely sell, with movement from these wallets happening less than 3% of the time on any given day.

Fidelity projects that this ancient supply could grow to 20% by 2028 and reach 25% by 2034. This would reduce the number of coins available for trading, tightening liquidity further.

Institutional Inflows Set to Grow Sharply

At the same time, capital from large institutions is flowing into Bitcoin at a rapid pace. Bitwise estimates inflows will hit $120 billion by 2025 and could rise to $300 billion by 2026 under a moderate outlook.

Various sources could drive these investments:

• Countries reallocating just 5% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin could contribute $161.7 billion, accounting for 7.7% of total supply.
• U.S. states adopting Bitcoin at a 30% level may bring in $19.6 billion.
• Wealth management platforms allocating just 0.5% to Bitcoin could add $300 billion.
• Public companies doubling their current holdings would contribute another $117.8 billion.

In an optimistic scenario, inflows could exceed $426 billion, enough to absorb over 4 million BTC, or 19% of the total supply.

Price Impact: A Perfect Storm for Bitcoin?

As more Bitcoin becomes locked away and institutional buyers increase their exposure, the available supply may shrink further. This imbalance between high demand and low supply could support much higher price targets over the long term.

With fewer coins available to trade and more major players entering the market, Bitcoin’s price could see unprecedented growth if these trends continue.

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